A deeper look at the 2018 Cy Young finalists http://www.piratesfanproshop.com/authentic-josh-bell-jersey , and posts Fanshots Sections Houston Astros NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsWhy Justin Verlander deserved the 2018 Cy Young AwardNew,12commentsA deeper look at the 2018 Cy Young finalists, and why Justin Verlander should have won the award.CSTShareTweetShareShareWhy Justin Verlander deserved the 2018 Cy Young AwardSo I want to start this off by saying this is not a bash on Blake Snell, nor do I think he was undeserving of the award. I’m not particularly upset by his selection, although I do believe the voters got it wrong. Why? Well let’s dig in a bit further on each of the players and the seasons they had.The overall voting came in remarkably close with Snell edging out Verlander with a 169-154 point victory.I did some research and found an interesting quote on why Snell deserved to win the Cy Young: “Additionally, Snell played a big role in his team’s surprisingly successful season, pitching dominantly deep into games, sparing the Rays’ hard-working bullpen a few extra innings of work.” – 12up.com *A particularly interesting take given that Verlander pitched 34 more innings * Traditional Stats:Blake Snell – 21-5, 1.89 ERA in 180 IPJustin Verlander – 16-9, 2.52 ERA, in 214 IPFrom the traditional stats, Snell wins this hands down. From this precursory glance, I’d say that it appears that Snell easily out pitched Verlander, and it’s likely what the voters looked at as well. Wins still carry a lot of weight, and half way through the year I did an article on who was leading the Cy Young Race and guessed that someone being a 20 game winner would be a deciding factor. It’s an unfortunate factor that is more determined by luck and your team that the individual pitcher’s talents.Verlander struck out significantly more (290 K’s – 12.2 K/9) vs Snell’s (221 – 11.01 K/9) and also exhibited significantly better control numbers, with Verlander (1.56 BB/9) walking half the number of batters Snell (3.19 BB/9) did.Advanced Stats: Let’s start with WAR, which is commonly looked at as an all-in one stat for players. Snell – 4.6 fWAR, 7.5 bWAR, Verlander – 6.8 fWAR, 6.2 bWARThere’s a significant difference between the two ratings Ivan Nova Jersey , largely due to Baseball-Reference using ERA to determine their WAR rating vs Fangraphs using FIP. FIP is generally accepted to be a much better indicator of the individual player’s success as it reduces the effects of luck, defense behind you, etc.Verlander’s FIP (2.78) beat out Snell’s (2.95), and the other advanced ERA-style analytics such as SIERA, xFIP, etc all agreed with this metric. Largely the differential came down to luck with runners on.xWOBA is probably my favorite stat to evaluate performance, it literally assigns values based on every single hit based on launch angle, exit velocity, etc to put a number value on performance similar to OPS (for pitchers lower is better). wOBA is what occurred, xwOBA is what would be expected based on how hard the ball was hit, at what angle, etc.Verlander - .260 wOBA//.236 xwOBASnell - .246 wOBA // .272 xwOBAVerlander easily outpaced what the expected results from Snell were.Comparison of ConditionsThere are other factors that come in to play in addition to “luck” of sequencing and the defense that plays behind you. Obvious things that come to mind are ballpark that you are pitching in and the teams you’re playing against. These are harder from an analysis side, but I figured we can take a look at both the Strength of Schedule as well as their home ballparks from an offensive point of view. Rotographs - MMPRotographs - Tropicana FieldOn a Park Factorperspective, Minute Maid Park has somewhat of a reputation of a hitter’s bandbox due to the Crawford Boxes. In reality, MMP is almost exactly neutral coming in at #15th best park for hitters at a Park Factor of 1.004. Tropicana field on the other hand, was in the top 10 best parks for pitchers (ranking #21 for offenses) – coming in at 0.953 Some will argue the difference in strength of schedule between the two, with the AL East being notoriously strong. Back in August, I took a look at this and found in 2018, the AL West was the strongest division in the league at the time. Looking online, I struggled to find SoS stats for last year’s season other than from here which ranked the Astros at #16 http://www.piratesfanproshop.com/authentic-josh-bell-jersey , the Rays at #17 with a .03 differential on a scale of teams ranging from 13.44 to 18.94), which indicates very minimal difference by their standards. Obviously this looks at the strengths from a macro level, not at an individual level. If someone knows a better place to find that type of analysis, please let me know. Quality of Pitch perspective: Both were excellent pitchers, but QOP shows a definitive advantage to Verlander as well. SummarySo I completely understand why Snell took the award, he was a 20+ game winner who led the league with a 1.89 ERA. It was a phenomenal season, but unfortunately looks to be far more luck driven than due to a superior performance compared to Verlander.Now obviously, I admit I’m biased, I’m a fan of the Astros and will admit that it’ll color my judgement, but the stats seem overwhelming here. Verlander struck out more batters per 9, he walked less batters per 9, he gained weaker contact based on xWOBA. Oh and he did all of this while pitching to a near identical difficulty of opponents (on a macro level) at a ballpark that is significantly harder for pitchers.The end results of Snell winning the award makes sense, but every analytical approach shows that Justin Verlander was not only the better pitcher in basically every way, BUT he also pitched almost 20% more! McHugh tries to set the ship right in third Spring Training start."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Houston Astros NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsSpring Training Game Thread. Marlins vs. Astros, March 14th, 2019, 12:05 CDTNew,91commentsMcHugh tries to set the ship right in third Spring Training start. CDTShareTweetShareShareSpring Training Game Thread. Marlins vs. Astros, March 14th, 2019 Brad Hand Jersey , 12:05 CDTThat’s Nick Tanielu. Just thought he should be on the front page of a major media outlet at least once in his career. Or maybe we can say: “you saw it here first folks.” Someone send this to his mother. WE LOVE NICK TANIELU.Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY SportsYesterday the Astros lost a pitcher’s duel to the Mets, 2-1. Gerrit Cole took the loss, giving up his only runs of the Spring on a home run to our old friend, Robinson Cano. Meanwhile the Astros could not touch Mets starter Noah Syndegaard, a matchup between two possible Cy Young contenders.On the positive side for the good guys, Aledmys Diaz broke out of his Spring slump, going 2-2, and Cionel Perez had his first chance of Spring Training, throwing one perfect inning and looking good doing it. Will he be the late horse in the race for the last spot in the bullpen?Today Collin McHugh gets a needed warm-up against former Astro Dan Strailly. Although accustomed to slow starts in the Spring, McHugh missed early action and is now playing a little catch-up. Today he hopes to improve on his current 12.00 Spring Training ERA.It’s a pretty stacked line up today, but no Altuve again, still recovering from “discomfort.” (or something) And this Spring’s biggest surprise, Nick Tanielu, with four home runs so far, gets a start at Jose’s position.Line up below.Here’s some Cole train action for your edification.Radio: Marlins MLB.com, Astros, KBME 790 AM (delay)TV: Astros, ATT SportsNet-SW